The rental market forecast in Italy for 2026 indicates a sector that continues to evolve under economic, demographic, and social influences. Rising wages have increased tenants’ purchasing power, boosting interest in long-term property rentals in 2026, especially in major cities and university hubs.
Short-term property rentals in 2026 remain in high demand due to tourism and seasonal mobility, creating opportunities while adding pressure on the limited housing supply. The rise in property prices in 2026 and the persistent imbalance between supply and demand in the rental market in 2026 lay the foundation for future trends, defining key scenarios for tenants and investors.
Trends in Italy in 2025
The Rental market forecast in Italy for 2026 shows that the rental sector continues to evolve under the influence of economic, demographic and social factors. Rising salaries have strengthened the purchasing power of tenants, increasing the interest in long-term property rentals in 2026, especially in major cities and university centers.
The long-term rental segment has been under strong pressure due to the growing volume of tourism. Owners who possess three or four apartments increasingly prefer short-term rentals through platforms like Airbnb and Booking, since this type of short-term property rental generates significantly higher income. As a result, the availability of affordable long-term apartments has fallen sharply, driving rental prices upward and creating evident difficulties for local residents searching for stable housing.
In 2025, the rise in property prices was especially visible in urban areas, where demand largely exceeded supply. Coastal regions and the main tourist destinations experienced an expansion of short-term rentals, pushing many landlords to prioritize seasonal income and further shrinking the number of long-term rental options.
The analysis of supply and demand in the rental market shows a clear imbalance: young professionals, students and middle-income families faced major challenges in securing suitable apartments and were often forced to accept higher prices or less favorable conditions. This environment strengthened investment opportunities, increasing the profitability of units placed on the rental market.
In summary, 2025 was marked by strong competition within the Italian rental sector. The combination of rising tourist flows, the high profitability of short-term rentals, and persistent housing shortages resulted in continued growth of long-term rental prices, forming the structural basis for the Rental market forecast in Italy for 2026 and outlining the key dynamics for tenants, property owners and investors.
Analysis of European Countries (Long-Term and Short-Term Rentals)
By 2025, the European rental market has faced a pronounced rise in housing costs, and the differences between countries have become especially visible through clear numeric contrasts. Across most European markets, the lower threshold of rental prices continues to move upward, while the cost of long-term housing varies drastically between states.
Scandinavian countries — Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland — hold some of the highest average long-term rental prices in Europe. In Copenhagen, Stockholm and Oslo, a standard long-term one-bedroom apartment costs from 1000 to 2500 euros per month, creating an extremely high entry barrier for young professionals and students. Even rooms in shared apartments often reach 700–900 euros, while demand consistently exceeds supply. Short-term rentals in these countries are tightly regulated, which keeps part of the housing stock outside the Airbnb market; however, the overall housing shortage remains critical.
Germany and the Netherlands also show stable growth in long-term rental prices. In Berlin and Hamburg, long-term rates in 2025 range from 850 to 1500 euros, while in Amsterdam they rise from 1200 to 2200 euros. High migration, internal population mobility and a strong labor market create ongoing pressure on housing availability. Short-term rentals are partially limited, yet their profitability remains higher than traditional leases, encouraging property owners in tourist areas to prefer the short-term model.
Southern Europe has lower price levels overall, but the growth dynamics are often faster. In Spain and Portugal, long-term rentals in major cities have reached 700 to 1400 euros for a standard apartment. In central Barcelona and Lisbon, costs easily exceed 1500 euros. The mass shift of apartments into the short-term segment through Airbnb and Booking has reduced the availability of permanent housing to the point where local residents are increasingly pushed toward the outskirts.
In France, the lower threshold for long-term rentals in Paris remains between 1100 and 1700 euros, while the short-term market yields landlords 2–3 times higher income. Regulations help return some units to long-term rental, but the overall imbalance between supply and demand persists.
In Central Europe, the price range is significantly wider. In Prague, long-term rentals start from 600–900 euros, in Warsaw from 500–800 euros, and in Vienna from 900 to 1500 euros depending on the district. Strong demand from students, IT professionals, expats and internal migrants continues to push the market upward.
The Baltic countries have a more moderate price range yet maintain steady growth. Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn in 2025 show long-term rentals between 450 and 750 euros, with central areas climbing to 900. At the same time, short-term rentals during the tourist season generate substantial profit for property owners, further reducing the supply of accessible long-term apartments.
Against this background, one key feature of Italy stands out: the lower threshold of long-term rentals is still significantly below that of most European nations. In many Italian regions, long-term rentals in 2025 start from 350–450 euros, making the country one of the most accessible in the EU. However, the gap between minimum and average prices is widening rapidly: in large cities (Milan, Rome, Florence, Bologna), rents now range from 700 to 1400 euros, while popular tourist zones are rapidly shifting to the short-term model, pushing long-term prices upward.
Overall, the European analysis shows:
— long-term rental costs are rising everywhere;
— short-term rentals remain more profitable in almost all countries;
— tourist demand directly pushes residents out of local markets;
— Italy still maintains one of the lowest entry thresholds, though its price dynamics fully match the broader European trend.
This foundation prepares the ground for the upcoming forecast of Italy’s rental market for 2026 and explains why pressure on the Italian housing sector will continue to intensify.
Forecast of the Italian Rental Market for 2026
The forecast for the Italian real estate rental market in 2026 is shaped by several structural factors: rising incomes in key regions, a persistent shortage of affordable housing, the aggressive expansion of the short-term rental segment, and ongoing migration toward major cities. These elements put pressure on both categories — long-term rentals and short-term rentals. All indicators show a further acceleration in price growth and a widening gap between supply and demand.
In the long-term segment, the main trend for 2026 is a further increase in rental prices in almost all regions. If in 2025 the lower band of rents was 350–450 euros in provinces and smaller towns, by mid-2026 forecasts shift toward a minimum range of 400–500 euros, even in areas that traditionally offered greater affordability. The reasons are growing competition for a limited amount of available housing, rising utility costs, and the decision of many owners to switch to the short-term market. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in major cities — Milan, Rome, Bologna, Florence — reaches 800–1500 euros in 2026, while in the most sought-after districts it may reach 1600–1800 euros. In Milan and Rome, larger apartments (70–90 m²) easily reach 1800–2500 euros, becoming the new normal.
Regional forecasts show similar dynamics. In Veneto, Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna and Lazio, long-term rental growth in 2026 is expected to be between 8% and 12%, while in some cities it may reach 15%. In the South, the increase is more moderate, but even there prices are expected to grow by 5–7%, pushed by remote workers and new internal migrants. Another factor is the rise in wages across several sectors: higher incomes allow landlords to increase prices without shrinking the pool of potential tenants.
A significant impact comes from the short-term rental segment, which in 2026 remains considerably more profitable. The average earnings of property owners in tourist cities, thanks to platforms such as Airbnb and Booking, compensate even for higher taxation. In cities like Rome, Milan, Venice, Florence and Naples, the profitability of short-term rentals compared to long-term contracts can be 2–3 times higher, and during peak season even up to 4 times higher. This means that an apartment generating 1000–1400 euros with a long-term lease can generate 3000–4500 euros per month with intensive short-term management.
For this reason, the outflow of apartments from the long-term segment will continue. In 2026, a reduction of 5–8% in the number of properties available for long-term rent is expected, especially in tourist areas and university cities. This will further increase pressure on tenants, forcing them to accept more expensive offers or to move to peripheral areas. In Bologna, Florence and Milan, students already face prices of 500–800 euros for rooms, and forecasts indicate a possible increase to 600–900 euros by the end of 2026.
Supply and demand in 2026 continue to diverge. Demand grows not only due to internal migrants but also thanks to the return of tourist flows, which in 2025 exceeded 2019 levels. In 2026, a further 3–6% increase in tourism is expected, pushing owners to maintain their properties in the short-term segment. As a result, residents seeking long-term housing will face even tougher competition. The average time required to find a long-term apartment in large cities will rise from 2–4 weeks in 2025 to 4–7 weeks in 2026.
The construction factor is also significant: the number of new homes built in Italy is insufficient. With the current pace of construction, supply is growing 2.5–3 times more slowly than demand. This means that even in a stable economic phase, prices will continue to rise.
Key conclusions for 2026:
— long-term rents in Italy will rise by 7–12%, and in major cities up to 15%;
— short-term rentals will remain at least twice as profitable as long-term rentals;
— the tourism sector will continue pushing residents out of central districts;
— housing scarcity will intensify, especially in university cities and employment hubs;
— the lower price range will reach 400–500 euros, while the average will rise to 900–1500 euros.
These indicators outline a clear scenario: the Italian rental market in 2026 will become even more strained, with further price growth and a continuous shift of supply toward short-term formats.
The average rental price in major Italian cities continues to rise steadily. In the past two years, the average increase has been between 6% and 12%, while in leading cities it has reached 15%. Over the next 12 months, an additional increase of 8–10% is expected, and by 2027 the average rent could rise by a total of 20–25% compared to 2024.
The main factor remains the structural scarcity of supply. With a market occupancy rate of 95–97%, new properties enter the market slowly, while demand keeps rising. Growth is particularly evident in Milan, Rome, Naples and Florence, where by 2030 long-term rental prices may approach average European levels.
Recommendation for tenants (long-term rentals)
4+4 contracts are the most advantageous, as rental prices in the coming years are expected to continue rising until they reach levels close to the European average. Fixing the price for a long period reduces the risk of annual increases, which are becoming increasingly common in Italy.
Recommendation for property owners
1+1 or 3+2 contracts are optimal. The market is growing, and the flexibility of these formats allows owners to regularly update rental prices according to trends. With high demand and persistent scarcity of quality properties, this ensures stable profitability.
Trends for the next ten years
Rising rental prices until 2035 represent the main scenario. This is due not only to the country's economic growth but also to broader demographic changes across Europe.
At the same time, there is a significant geopolitical uncertainty factor. In the event of increased Russian aggression against European countries in the coming years, a strong wave of internal migration within the EU may occur. This flow would not come from poor regions but from economically advanced countries with high spending capacity. Italy, being one of the most desirable countries for quality of life, climate and safety, would become a preferred destination, further worsening housing shortages and accelerating price growth.
Alternative scenario
If Ukraine manages to retake its occupied territories — militarily or diplomatically — keeping the conflict local without involving the rest of the continent, price growth would remain more moderate, around 5–7% annually, without sudden spikes.
